White Paper Series: Gambling Commission update on Stage 2 of the financial risk assessments pilot
The Gambling Commission has provided an update on Stage 2 of its three-stage pilot of financial risk assessments (the “Pilot”) and what to expect from Stage 3. As a reminder, Stage 1 looked at a cohort of inactive customers, while Stage 2 looked at active customers (for a refresh on Stage 1 and what the Pilot entails, see our previous blog, White Paper Series: Gambling Commission update on the financial risk assessments pilot).
At each stage of the Pilot, the Gambling Commission has been testing at least one of the following success criteria, and each stage is expected to provide different results.
- Frictionless part 1: What proportion of those high-spending customers checked could get a frictionless financial risk assessment if they were introduced?
- Frictionless part 2: How quickly could credit reference agencies return a financial risk assessment?
- Data relevance and accuracy: Is using credit reference data meaningful for understanding of an individual customer’s current or imminent overall financial risk and financial vulnerability?
- Implementation issues: How could the data be presented to operators to help understand the level of financial risk or vulnerabilities associated with individual customers? How could operators build financial risk assessments into their overall customer interaction processes?
Where are they now?
Stage 2 of the Pilot is now complete and has provided more data on the potential for frictionless assessments. Stage 3 has just come to an end and reporting is taking place. This will be followed by a post-Stage 3 analysis period which will allow the Gambling Commission to further assess issues that have been raised earlier in the Pilot.
Stages 1 and 2 both tested customer accounts which had, during a set historical period, met high-spending thresholds. The account details were shared with one or more credit reference agencies which provided a financial risk assessment at the point the threshold was met. This means the Pilot is testing what financial risk indicators were present when the account met the high spending threshold. As a result, the credit reference agencies are replicating the data returns to operators as close to automated or live implementation as possible.
Stages 1 and 2 primarily informed the first success criterion on the proportions of customers that might be able to receive a frictionless check. It also gave the Gambling Commission some insights on data quality and understanding (success criterion 3) and implementation issues (success criterion 4). The emerging findings from both stages were used and are being used to inform the Gambling Commission’s approaches on Stage 3 of the Pilot and the post-Pilot analysis approach.
Findings and figures from Stage 2
Stage 2 of the Pilot comprised approximately 1.7 million financial risk assessments (an increase from Stage 1) across the three credit reference agencies in relation to approximately 860,000 accounts – although, this number is not indicative of how many accounts might be assessed if the assessments were introduced in a live environment.
Findings include:
- Increased percentage of frictionless checks: Stage 2 saw an increase from 95% to 97% in the percentage of assessments that were possible in a frictionless manner (compared to the 80% estimated in the Government’s 2023 White Paper). Included in this category is the “thin file” rate. “Thin files” are where the customer could be identified but there was limited information and no adverse information. The thin file rate stayed at approximately 3% of the assessments in both Stages 1 and 2.
- Reduced percentage of unmatched accounts: Approximately 3% of the assessments of active accounts (i.e. the highest spending accounts as opposed to the total number of accounts) were not matched in Stage 2, compared to 5% in Stage 1. The Gambling Commission explains that the more recent period used in Stage 2 may have contributed to a reduction in the unmatched category as the operators’ data may have been more up to date. This result was favourable compared to the 20%, who were estimated in the White Paper to not have a frictionless assessment. The unmatched category also includes the “invalid rate” (concerning issues in the operators’ data provided to credit reference agencies – such as data formatting issues, invalid data or duplications in the data provided to credit reference agencies by operators), which saw a slight reduction – albeit the rate has been less than 1% in Stages 1 and 2. Customers under 25 years of age were more likely to be unmatched than those who were 25 and over.
- Percentage of frictionless assessments: The Gambling Commission used Stage 2 proportions to give a reasonable estimate of 0.1% active accounts that would be unable to receive a frictionless assessment at the consultation proposed thresholds, compared to the 0.6% estimated in the White Paper. All three credit reference agencies were conducting frictionless assessments at a minimum of 95.47% in Stage 2.
- Financial risk in the customer base: Data shared from two credit reference agencies showed that customers who met the thresholds for the pilot where they conducted assessments were between twice and four times more likely to have a debt management plan, and between twice and five times more likely to have a default in the last 12 months, than the type of consumer in their comparison UK populations.
- Credit reference agency variations: Whilst it is expected that the credit reference agencies would have their unique systems, operators continued to see differing results from different credit reference agencies without sufficient information to understand the reasons why there might be differing results. This will be a key focus for the post-Stage 3 analysis phase.
The next steps
The Gambling Commission is now further exploring data consistency across credit reference agencies, as well as exploring options to focus identification through financial risk assessments of the most severe financial difficulties.
It will also continue work to support operators to consider how they could support customers and emphasises that,
“Financial risk assessments are not designed to be acted on in isolation, as that would fail to balance the financial risk alongside everything else that is known about the customer.”
Data-sharing for Stage 3 of the Pilot completed on 30 April, and the Gambling Commission has moved to an analysis phase which will run into the summer period.
Please get in touch with us if you have any questions about the financial risk assessments Pilot or its findings from Stages 1 and/or 2.
See our White Paper Series for more information and updates.